Monday, January 31, 2011

Oil Rallies On Egyptian Unrest

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Insight on what should move on Egypt and what should not, with Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.





CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, including developments in Egypt surrounding shipping in the Suez Canal, and where gold, oil and other commodities are likely headed tomorrow.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Itz Week End Review 1-30-11

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This coming week is going to be very pivotal for the markets. First of all the headline news...Egypt in turmoil. The Egyptian uprising presents a serious impact to global markets not specifically because of the possibility of a government turnover in Egypt but the possibility of the contagion spreading to other countries. Saudi Arabia already has increased civilian unrest that is set to erupt. If this kind of problem rose in Saudi Arabia the U.S. would be drawn into the picture in order to protect Saudi from outside influences, protect the royal family and protect the oil fields. This worry over Saudi being drawn into the fray is the real problem for the U.S. markets.
Some blame the Egypt news for the sell off, but it maybe the excuse, but not the reason. Other events were in play Friday, the GDP report for Q4 came in lower than expected and put a damper on trader spirits. The headline number showed growth of +3.2% compared to estimates of +3.6%. This was still an improvement over the +2.6% growth in Q3. The biggest drag on growth was a giant decline in inventories that removed -3.7% from the GDP number.
The big event this week, besides the geopolitical events, will be  The Non-Farm Payrolls, estimates are for a gain of 146,000 jobs. Recent economic reports have shown an increase in the employment components so the whisper numbers are higher than the 146K.
As for earnings last week,  Amazon reported earnings on Thursday night and declined  the day with a 7% loss. Amazon represents 2.1% of the Nasdaq 100 and while that is far less than Apple's 18% the big drop in Amazon was a major hit to sentiment for tech stocks. Microsoft has a 4.5% weighting in the Nasdaq and the stock lost -4% on Friday after posting earnings that left many traders disappointed. Visa and MC report this week and will give us a consumer update by releasing the latest delinquency numbers.
The big winners for the past week were commodities, especially gold, silver and oil, rallied strongly on the Egyptian violence. Itz had alerted investors that Oil would drop from the low 90's to under $88 support, testing $85/$86 levels. Suggesting to long crude oil via ProShares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO) under $11.
Itz also highlighted that gold was set to test it's 150 day moving average, which over the last 18 months has proven to be a reversal point. Itz has called for $100 per barrel crude for early 2011 and $110 by year end, prior to the Middle East geopolitical events. Concerns of the Suez canal being blocked has traders concerned that oil will spike on a disruption of supplies. Itz believes that scenario occurring is very slim, this isn't a military action, but a civilian unarmed protest. However, as stated earlier...IF this escalates into other countries and Hamas and or Al Qaeda increase their presence, well then things will definitely worsen.
Investors will be very cautious Monday, as geopolitical events continue to unfold. 





Friday, January 28, 2011

Crude Oil Set To Resume Its Run Back Towards $100+

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Itz has noted in previous posts that oil has trailed silvers movement by 4 months. >>LINK
In this chart Itz has included copper, which has broken out as well. Itz had forecast a near term pullback for crude oil, but we should see a reversal soon and a resumption of higher prices in coming months.


Thursday, January 27, 2011

Is Gold's Correction Over?

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Gold has declined nearly $150 from its peak. Itz has looked at several chart patterns recently. One that comes into play this week is the 150 day moving average. In the past the moving average has been a pivotal point to enter gold, as highlighted in the chart below. Itz decided to look at how Gold, Silver and Copper have performed at each of those periods.  July 29th, 2010 March 25th, 2010 February 5th, 2010 July 13th, 2009


Will gold rally this time? And will silver & copper outperform? The next few days & weeks will tell.

Gold/Copper Ratio Indicator

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The Gold/Silver ratio can be an economic indicator as a surge can indicate recession, tightening of credit and the reverse can be true on the downside. Silver's duality as a precious metal and industrial metal sways. A better comparison is the Gold/Copper ratio. In this chart, we compare Gold/Copper ratio, Commodities and the S&P500. Highlighted (in yellow) when Copper outperformed Gold. Stocks were especially strong during those periods and Commodities also performed well. The point is that Gold/Copper is presently a better economic indicator than the Gold/Silver ratio. Don’t assume that a falling Gold/Silver ratio is bullish for Stocks and Commodities. Check the Gold/Copper ratio for confirmation.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Chris Christie & Jim Rogers on Kudlow Report

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Two great interviews by CNBC's Larry Kudlow this evening.

Insight on why he is dissapointed on the President's plans for the budget, with Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ).



A look at where stocks and commodities are headed, with Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings chairman.

Oil Has Bottomed, Resuming Run To $100

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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

ITZ Mid-Week Videos~ Birinyi, Gold & Oil

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Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, tells CNBC he still expects a long-term secular bull market and shares his five favorite stock picks.



CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where gold, oil and other commodities are likely headed tomorrow.



Gold settles at its lowest level since October 2010. Insight with James West, Midas Letter author.

SILVER...Is It A Buy Yet?? ITZ PIX Update

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Silver continues it's decline, charts below point to possible test levels.

**Note ITZ Pix portfolio entered ProShares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO) today @ $11.00. Itz also suggests taking a partial position prior to tomorrow EIA Weekly Inventory Report.




Monday, January 24, 2011

$85 Crude Oil Maybe Lower?

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Over a week ago Itz highlighted that crude oil was primed and overdue for a pullback, in the near term. >>LINK Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he expected world oil demand would increase this year beyond that forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. >>LINK

Itz Stock Chartz is suggested earlier today on Twitter, that those looking to enter the oil sector start accumulating Proshares Ultra Crude (UCO) The closing price today was $11.32, ITZ target Buy Zone is $11.