Wednesday, November 30, 2011

A Monster Rally for Risk Assets

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Positive events rallied the markets world central bank action and bullish U.S. economic data. How much more can this rally go? Friday is the November Jobs report from the BLS which could either add fuel or cool off this move. Other key events that can prove to be big market catalysts... EU meeting scheduled for December 9th and on the 16th OPEC meets.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

WTI OIL $112 Price Objective

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U.S. crude stockpiles rose 3.4 million barrels in the week to Nov. 25, compared with analysts' expectations for a 200,000-barrel fall, weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. In futures trading WTI crude pulled back to $99.25 & currently at $99.65.

Geopolitical tensions in Iran storming the British Embassy and Euro zone ministers agreed on Tuesday to ramp up the firepower of their rescue fund.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will follow with its weekly report on Wednesday. Friday is the BLS monthly Jobs Report. More significant OPEC meets on December 14th.
ITZ has observed two Cup & Handle chart formations the current on a 30 minute chart...if that plays out...then we'll be watching the 4 hour chart for another possible Cup & Handle to develop.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Markets Heading Lower

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Global news is sending markets lower today... weak Chinese data,  manufacturing  fell to a 32-month low, Brazil warns economic growth may slowdown to zero, Fitch downgrades France debt, and a German bond auction does poorly.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Why Apple is a Bargain

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Apple closed Friday near $375, ITZ suggested a 1/2 position at $380. If this market continues to pull back AAPL could test its 200ma around $362. Chart Link

ITZ 2012 earnings per share estimates $37, currently trading at 10xs forward. 3-5 year est growth rate of 30% puts a PEG at 0.30.
According to the company's recently filed 10-K, Apple actually has $9.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents $16.1 billion . Short-term marketable securities $26B,  long-term marketable securities $55.6B which comes to $81.6 billion, or approximately $88 per share. So back out the cash comes to $287 as share. Apple's ability to generate cash is impressive, for the 2012 fiscal year, it will likely post at least $120 billion in cash or $125 in cash per share.
With no debt and ability to generate tons of cash, Apple should at minimum be trading at 15xs forward earnings placing it at $555 a share.