On Tuesday Itz Pix portfolio was stopped out of the Proshares Ultra Crude OIl ETF (UCO) @ $10.50. Itz had called for a possible re-entry if warranted. The chart today gave a BUY>>Chart
Brent is coming in & WTI is rising, the spread is narrowing...more in this weekends update.
ITZ is suggesting to re-enter @ $10.75.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil inventories declined 354,000 barrels the week of Feb. 11, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Analysts polled by Platts had expected oil stocks to increase 2.8 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 1.23 million barrels; they were seen rising 1.7 million barrels. Supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, declined 1.2 million barrels. The analysts surveyed had expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Crude-oil futures settled at $84.32 a barrel on Tuesday, an 11-week low. link EIA reports tomorrow @ 10:30 am EST.
Brent and West Texas oil spread, with Stifel Nicolaus' David Lutz.
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil, silver, gold and other commodities are likely headed tomorrow.
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Proshares Ultra Crude Oil (UCO hit the suggested $10.50 STOP today, exited position with a -4.5% loss. Oil supplies rise in survey on Cushing Pipeline read >> WTI in process of testing $80 level as discussed in previous posts. ITZ STOCK CHARTZ may re-enter UCO in coming weeks if conditions warrant...remains on the radar.
The world witnessed a historic event as the Egyptian people won their freedom Friday. But amid the euphoria that has continued on the day after Mubarak's fall, many insist that a new era for Egyptian politics has begun, and that the fortunes of Suleiman and Shafik are waning. It may take six months to a year to organize a presidential election. Even leading up to Mubarak's decision, just 12 hours earlier he gave a steadfast speech, vowing to remain as president until September, when his term was up. The markets were on edge, things could have gone either way, it could of been a bloody outcome, but instead turned out to be a peaceful. But one has to ask, just because Mubarak has exited, have things really changed? Suleiman and the military still run the show and who is to say they will allow elections? Note that the markets will have that trepidation in mind. There are quite a few analysts that believe these things won't happen or at least won't happen in the quoted timeframe. The military has been in charge behind the scenes in Egypt for the last 60 years but they always had a front man to take the heat. The civilian population is currently happy with the military but they do want a democratic government. The military may not want a truly democratic government because it would restrict their power.
It remains to be seen if any of the planned demonstrations will gain any traction the adjoining Arab countries, but the potential for another country to flare up is definitely there. These demonstrations could be new bricks in the bull's wall of worry. Investors will have to find something else to worry about. If and when a new president and gov't comes into office many will wonder if Egypt will hold to their treaty with Israel? Will this contagion spread and how much power will radical groups in the region gain?
Oil prices have been volatile over the last 2 weeks, first rallying on fears and then retreating on news the Egypt crisis had ended. The U.S. WTI contract fell to $85.28 at the close. Meanwhile the Brent contract rallied +56 cents to $101.43. The difference reflects the buildup of supplies at the WTI delivery point at Cushing Oklahoma. The WTI contract expires in seven days. The Brent contract has become the global standard for crude since it is not impacted by storage issues. Friday Afternoon, the CFTC Commitment of Traders NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil number for Feb. 8th came out. >>LINK It saw on the Non-Commercial side a weekly decrease on shorts by 12,799 with a +165,508 net long position, while the Commercial's (Smart Money) adding 24,230 shorts for the week and a Net +221,010 Short position.
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, including the response on the floor when Mubarak resigned, and looks ahead to where oil, gold and other commodities are likely headed next week.
Saudi Arabia is the largest oil consuming nation in the Middle East. In 2009, Saudi Arabia consumed approximately 2.4 million bbl/d of oil, up 50 percent since 2000, due to strong economic and industrial growth and subsidized prices. READ.... OPEC sees no supply shortage? Read.... What numbers are they basing supply estimates on? read more... follow Itz Stock Chartz daily updates on Twitter
For now it appears that things have subsided in the Middle East, but we may see a flareup again in Greece. European and IMF debt inspectors told Greece Friday to privatize euro 50 billion (C$67 billion) in state assets and push through a punishing overhaul of government-run institutions in the next few months to keep the country's troubled finances afloat. >>LINK The problems from the EU no longer on the headline news doesn't mean the problems have been solved. This should rekindle the gold market.
Both precious metals are expected to move higher in 2011, but which is the better buy? Phillip Streible of Lind-Waldock and Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group weigh in.
Tips on parlaying price increases into profits, with Lee Munson of Portfolio Asset Management and Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services.
Considering the global events of the week Egypt & China rasing interest rates alonng with the Cisco news...the S&P 500 continues to steam ahead. Fund managers claim they are forced to buy stocks because of the largest fund inflows in over two years. An estimated $16 billion flowed into equity funds in January and those flows are still in progress. Bond funds have now seen three consecutive months of outflows for the longest streak in more than two years. Over $32 billion has flowed out of bond funds. The Transport Index closed @ a new high and is set to break out. This is a bullish sentiment indicator and should continue to push stocks much higher. We could see some selling prior to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and don't forget Friday is Options Expiration.
Below are several Itz Pix Portfolio holdings that had some major moves recently.
The top four threats to the bull market, with Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners Management.
With most investors concerns on Egypt's uprising this past week, Friday saw things calm down somewhat. BLS reported Non-Farm Payrolls, the headline number came in with a gain of only +36,000 jobs instead of the consensus estimates of +146,000. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0% but not because a lot more people found jobs, Itz prefers to focus in on the U-6 number, which although lower still hovers around the 16% level. Earnings are winding down in the upcoming week, the big fish will be Cisco, be interesting to hear CEO Chambers comments and outlook?
Crude Oil garnered the most attention, but really has been rallying since June 2010. Itz Pix holding Suncor (SU) reported Q4 earnings this past week, the beat estimates and have managed to bring down their debt, all positives. The stock broke through long time resistance of $40, testing $43 and retreating as oil declined Friday. >>LINK
Crude oil prices sold off Friday -$1.42 on expectations that Mubarak would leave Egypt. At one point on Friday he was rumored to be resigning and leaving Egypt to live in Montenegro. The problem with Mubarak stepping down and leaving Egypt is how to keep the fortune he amassed as president of Egypt for 30 years. News that Gamal Mubarak, Hosni Mubarak's son, resigned from the leadership of Egypt's ruling party on Saturday and vowed not to run for election in September. The Egyptian protesters want Mubarak to leave immediately, although he has vowed to stay until the end of his term in September. Most believe that he is planning and arranging his departure both political and financially I'm sure. Bottom line is Mubaraks days are numbered and although some see an orderly transition of power, most I suspect, fear a chaotic and unfavorable outcome for Egypt's future.
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil, gold and other commodities could be headed next week.
Rumors circulating this weekend that the newly appointed Vice President, Omar Suleiman, survived an assassination attempt last week but two of his bodyguards were killed. Along with a gas pipeline from Egypt that delivers gas to Jordan and Israel exploded suspiciously on Saturday. As I type plans are for Egypt's business owners to reopen their businesses on Sunday. Banks will also open. The stock market thinks it will open on Monday. Lets see how things play out in the next several days.
Insight on commodities, with Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.
The S&P500 came close to testing August '08 highs, the trend continues to be higher, especially with low volatility, as per the $VIX. Investors continue to 'buy the dips'.
In a speech at the National Press Club this past week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed expects the economy to improve this year and inflation to remain low despite the jump in commodity prices and that the central bank will stick to its efforts to spur the economy. Chairman Bernanke basically indicated in his speech that he considers unemployment to be the bigger problem than inflation and that the Fed will continue to focus on that. Don't Fight The Fed!
Slightly disappointing jobs data contributing to mixed trading, with Craig Columbus, Advanced Equities Asset Management, and Phil Roth, Miller Tabak & Co.
WTI oil backed off today as Egypt seemed to calm down, on the close today President Mubarak stated he would not seek re-election this September. West Texas WTI was down on the day, however is trading up in in futures as I type. Brent crude continues to trade above $100 and the spread remains at historical high levels ($10), in the past, the when WTI has traded under Brent it has resulted in higher oil prices.
Goldman Sachs said it was bullish on crude oil on strong global demand that is growing well in excess of non-OPEC supply, overriding concerns of potential supply disruptions driven by political developments in the Middle East. >>LINK
Profiting From the Historic Spread Between WTI Cushing and Brent Crude Oil Prices >>LINK
A look at why investors should still be bullish on oil, with Brian Kelly, Kanundrum Capital president. >>LINK
Insight on what should move on Egypt and what should not, with Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, including developments in Egypt surrounding shipping in the Suez Canal, and where gold, oil and other commodities are likely headed tomorrow.
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