Readers of this blog know that silver has and continues to be one of ITZ's favorite suggested investment sectors. Silver Wheaton (SLW) more specifically the 'Best of Breed' stock to be in. Recently, Itz began to warn of silver's parabolic move and the divergence from the metal versus the silver miners/stocks. Also suggested protecting gains and that the upcoming correction/pullback will present an opportunity to load up again. Longer term silver has more upside, Itz has noted on Twitter and on this blog how adjusted for inflation silver to equal it's 1980 peak needs to more than double from current levels. Silver is in short supply, the fundamentals are strong and one can expect in coming years that silver prices will continue to rise. Importantly the advantage of silver over gold, that it has a dual advantage being a precious as well as an industrial metal. Here's a repost of a video you'll find of interest LINK
ITZ is suggesting that Silver Wheaton should be entered @ $37 level.The last time SLW presented an entry point was earlier this year and ITZ suggested to enter then as well. The 12 month price target remains @ $65. Recently several brokerages have raised their price targets Scotia raised to $58 from $47, UBS $49 from $45 & RBC $57 from $51.
Bad economic reports this past week were off set by some outstanding earnings reports from companies like Apple, Shlumberger and Honeywell. The biggest economic surprise came from the Philly Fed Manufacturing report. The headline number dropped from a 27 year high in March at 43.4 to a five month low at 18.5. Jobless Claims came in at 403,000 and the second week over 400K. This Wednesday will be the FOMC Announcement & the Ben Bernanke Press Conference, reporters will likely quiz the chairman on growth, inflation and monetary policy. He will probably talk about the success of QE2 and confirm it will end on schedule. Remark on the spike in oil prices is temporary, deflect questions on the dollar, the timing for the next rate hike and the debate on the debt ceiling. Q1 GDP is Thursday. The earnings calendar for next week is the busiest yet with more than 175 S&P companies (34%) reporting....AMZN, MMM, F, COP, BP, EBAY, MSFT. CAT & MRK.
Apple (AAPL) gained +8 on Thursday to $350 after beating estimates after the close on Wednesday. Apple has sold 19.5 million iPads since the first release through the end of Q1. Net income was $6.40 per share compared to analyst estimates of $5.37 per share. Revenue rose +83% to $24.7 billion for the quarter.
On the commodities sector, ITZ believe that gold & silver maybe putting in a near term top. No doubt that the US Dollars fee fall is to blame for higher commodities. Talk of gold going to $2000 should remind investors of the tech bubble mania, we may see $2000 but not for a few years. Morningstar released a report this weekend saying gold prices could decline to $1200 within three years. When you begin to get opposing views, that should raise a warning flag and one should protect their gains. With gold so expensive investors are turning to silver, ITZ preferred metal for sometime now. Silver is closing in on $50 and what would be a 30:1 ratio to gold. Precious metals investors continue to repeat the common ratio silver used to have to gold was more in the ratio of 20:1 and that would put silver over $75 an ounce. Again as with gold, I'd be cautious nearterm, we could see a reversal @ $50. That said, any correction should be bought.
Itz is starting to see the lower dollar trade as becoming crowded, I know that sounds contrarian, however...we maybe seeing a reversal coming. Itz maybe be early on the call but it comes down to this country either becoming Greece and letting our trillion in debt take us down along with the dollar. Or take action to save the dollar. Foreign central banks are reducing their dollar holdings for the simple reason the U.S. is monetizing its debt and the U.S. is continuing to go into debt at the rate of $1.6 trillion per year. The choice will have to be made in what direction this country wants to head to remain the global economic leader and keep the dollar as the reserve currency.
Bottom line, there's allot on the plate next week between earnings reports, economic events and geopolitical tensions. Will the old adage hold true this May and investors sell and go away?
Best wishes to those celebrating Easter Holiday.
Itz Charts
ITZ Videos
Questions, Larry Kudlow would like to ask Ben Bernanke at next week's Federal Reserve press conference, with Lee Hoskins, former Cleveland Fed president, and Wayne Angell, Former Federal Reserve governor.
Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter, takes a look at the latest market mystery. What's behind the dollar's decline?
Gold is at new highs, at over $1500 an ounce. A look at the best way to go, if collecting gold with Nick Barisheff, Bullion Management Group president/CEO
A look at the S&P 500, with Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Asset Management.
Joe Petrowski, Gulf Oil LLP CEO, discusses oil demand destruction, as prices rise.
Anthony Neglia of Tower Trading reveals how he's handling silver's volatile trading range.
Don't Like a Weak Dollar? Might as Well Get Used to It
Itz Stock Chartz in Itz Pix portfolio has traded in-and-out of the Proshares Ultra ETFs SCO & UCO. Recently having shorted oil via SCO, currently on sidelines. However, not being long via UCO at the moment doesn't mean ITZ is not in energy. The ITZ PIX portfolio is long PGH, PWE, RIG, SU & WLT which have moved nicely higher recently. However, as indicated below ITZ is watching WTI crude oil closely and is in the Goldman Sachs camp, that oil, fundamentals show that supplies are not the problem. This is a fear/speculative driven market and that a major pullback is ahead. ITZ however sees the pullback as an opportunity to add/buy for another move higher in September, targeting $120 on WTI. Watch that Gold/Oil Ratio *13 Level.... click for past posts
Again, the market rallied even as Google, Bank America earnings disappointed. Several key economic reports this past week, CPI, PPI, Manufacturing Survey, Consumer Sentiment all managed to be positive and offset the negative earnings news. The upcoming week will be light on economic reports, with housing reports and Philly Fed, market is closed for Good Friday/Easter weekend. The real news for next week will be the earnings calendar with more than 20% of the S&P500 reporting.Companies already disappointing include JP Morgan, Bank America, Google, and Alcoa. Next week is heavy in tech and financial earnings and those are the two biggest market sectors. this past Friday was not only April 15th Tax deadline, it was option expiration week and the normal period of volatility ahead of expiration is either the Friday of the preceding week or the Mon/Tue of expiration week. It just happens to be exactly when the market was weak. There is a historical trend for the market to be weak on the week before tax day.
Bottom line, the two fundamental movers for the weeks ahead will be oil & earnings. Click Here for more Itz Blog PostsBrand New Silver Bars and Rounds
Itz Stock Chartz
Itz Pix Videos
Randy Smallwood, CEO of Silver Wheaton, the world's largest reseller of silver, weighs in on the future of silver.
Speculators drove oil prices higher; not the fundamentals of supply and demand, says Michael Masters, Masters Capital Management.
Oil is experiencing an uptrend correction. A look at why this is a trend market, with Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research.
Will rising oil prices fuel inflation? A look at how investors can break through the "wall of worry," with David Kudla, Mainstay Capital Management, and Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets.
Rich Ross, Auerbach Grayson global technical strategist with a plan for investors to take advantage of high oil prices.
Oil rises on an improving economic outlook, consumer sentiment and industrial data. Meanwhile, gold and silver continue to rise due to fear.
Itz Pix exits the remaining 1/2 position of Proshares Ulra Short DJ-AIG Crude Oil (SCO) it just hit the $39 STOP. Having entered @ $38.50, Itz nets a +1.3% profit. The first 1/2 position netted 12%, in total the position gained 6.73% in 1 week. Note, Itz Stock Chartz is looking for WTI Oil to retest the recent highs $110 level and may re-enter the short oil position again...follow Twitter for updates. Click here for past posts
Subscribe in a reader
Bookmark this on Delicious
