Apple Exits Itz Pix Portfolio

Apple (AAPL) closed below the $190 stop today @ $188.95. It entered the portfolio back in July at a suggested entry level of $141. Bottom line +$47.95 for a +34% gain in 6 months.

Gold Update

I still believe as I noted last week that gold/silver have more in this correction, reiterating my downside target for gold ($1075). Itz Pix portfolio include Yamana (AUY); Freeport McMoran (FCX); Hecla (HL) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). Yamana has a covered call January $14, which I may suggest buying back, my downside target for AUY is $11. Silver Wheaton has a covered call Dec. $16 strike, downside target for SLW is $12. Both of these open calls are being monitored for possible buy backs to close. As I type the intraday rally in gold is fading $1159.
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Intraday View

Research In Motion is trading higher today after the BlackBerry maker announced a distribution deal with Digital China. Also for those who follow my blog, in the energy sector the driller or the OIH index is signaling BUY! Looking at the ITZ PIX portfolio commodity stocks are down, although higher than their earlier intraday lows after Bernanke's speech @ Economic Club of DC. Apple is flirting with the $190 level, having dropped below intraday, those trading should sell on a close below $190. Or consider an option strategy, perhaps a collar?
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Weekend Review

What a week it was and between the Dubai news, economic reports and the all important Jobs Report. Last Sunday I noted; "Gold looks like it is also set to pullback, my near term target is $1075." ~link~ The dollar rallied and commodities sold off, gold more so than oil. However, this dollar rally maybe short lived? The unemployment rate declined to 10.0% from 10.2%. Granted the direction of the losses is improving, but how honest were those number reported? The reason the unemployment rate declined is because 98,000 workers fell off the survey because their unemployment benefits ended. Not to mention that the labor force participation rate declined to 65%, a new record low for this recession.

So...where are things at? I see the dollar possibly trending alittle higher (see chart below) and my downside target for gold is $1075, longer term I see it still heading higher. I continue to believe that oil ($WTIC) is heading much higher $90 to $100 in a few months, as I've posted numerous times on this blog. It echoes gold by 3 to 4 months and my near term support for crude oil is $73 as noted on chart below. I've been suggesting Transocean (RIG) and Pride Int'l (PDE) two drillers, I also like SU & and the OIH. Another sector that is giving a bullish signal is technology, although some might say...with Apple breaking trend that tech is in trouble. I disagree, just look at Intel's move this past week, Cisco is set to break out soon too. I recently suggested Juniper, see chart. My favorite tech stock remains to be RIMM, maker of Blackberry. Reason being it is way undervalued, it still remains a global leader in the business sector and with a global recovery coming, I believe it will outperform.
The last chart I have is of the Value Line Geometric Index, it is a better gauge of the market versus the S&P 500 ($SPX). It is equally weighted and tracks smaller companies impact much better than the $SPX or $DJIA. It too looks poised to trend higher after a pause here. One other sector that hasn't participated and taken some heat of late is the financial/bank sector. I suggested JP Morgan (JPM) and still believe that this sector is ready to rally and take the market higher. *Note as I type Live Spot Gold is trading at $1154.
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Apple (AAPL) Update

Uncanny, I was just working on some charts (one being Apple) while watching CNBC's "Fast Money". Dennis Gartman, of the Gartman Letter noted on "Chartology" that Apple (AAPL) is sending a signal, that it's turning lower and trendline is broken and one should be "less involved". I disagree as a matter of fact one should add to their position here and use $190 (daily close) as a tight stop. Looking back a few years~ Apple was at $190 and topping out going into December '07. while in December '08 is was bottoming in the $80s. Is it topping out now? Ask yourself this...what is the outlook for Apple in 2010? How will iPhone sales be? How about the roll out of 4G? Talk of an Apple Tablet? Not to mention global smart phone sales are expected to grow by 10% globally in 2010 and how about China? Just walk into your local mall and Apple Store...use weakness in the stock to add or enter! ~read more~

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Silver/Gold update

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As I brought up two-weeks ago asking; 'Will Silver continue to outperform gold?' ~read~
Latest chart


A look at market technicals, with Jordan Kotick, Barclays Capital global head of technical strategy.

GOLD HITS $1200!

GOLD finally hits the $1200 level and Silver is at $19.29 as I type, while the Dollar is at 74.27. I've been suggesting lightening up on gold & silver and entering oil, via the drillers [RIG & PDE]. The charts below indicate that the last time the US Dollar dropped under the 74 level the metals peaked and the play was oil. I've written and posted several charts over the last several weeks on how oil was set to take off. ~read~
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GNK Followup

GNK looks attractive again, now that it has retraced. See it rallying off the $23/$24 level. As previously mentioned in past post ~read~

JPM Update

Banks traded higher after Goldman Sachs said that JPM, BAC & C and others US financials should avoid a major hit because they have a lot less direct exposure to Dubai than their European counter-parts. ~read~

I've posted several charts and suggested entry level for JPM over the last few weeks. ~read~

Even banking analyst, Dick Bove chimmed in today on CNBC.

Pride Int'l (PDE) & Higher Oil

Pride International (PDE) enters the Itz Pix Portfolio @ $31.

A look at a few charts this morning, GLD, SLV & USO. I've suggested that as gold spikes higher, that one should expect a pullback, Silver has yet to set a new high, but ytd has outperformed gold. For oil, it echoes the metals by 3 to 4 months and I believe and have posted several times, that it is primed to take off. Hence Transocean (RIG) & Pride Int'l (PDE). Also I posted a CNBC video clip from this morning in which James Richards, of Omnis Group; mentioned how oil may also spike on the possibility of an attack by Israel on Iran by March 2010.
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Week Ahead & Pride Int'l (PDE)

As I suggested two-weeks ago ~link~ wait for a pullback in Pride Int'l (PDE) before stepping in, well that BUY ZONE is here. The $30 to $31 zone looks attractive, start accumulating. Latest report from Barron's ~link~

Gold looks like it is also set to pullback, my near term target is $1075. ~chart~
As for the sell-off over Dubai, news over the weekend that the UAE central banks will stand behind lenders is reassuring to global markets ~story~. After all, its not the amount of money...BUT the fear of what could escalate that spooked markets again. Where there's smoke...there's fire!

The US Dollar continues to be the market barometer, it saw a flight to safety on the Dubai news Thursday/Friday. Dollar daily chart
On the Gold:Oil Ratio chart, it has been range bound since May and currently at the high end of 15.5. ~chart~

The coming week presents some important economic events. There are four ISM reports with the national manufacturing index on Tuesday. The Fed Beige Book is on Wednesday with another economic view of the various Fed regions. Then the big one on Friday; with the Non-Farm Payroll report for November.
My gut feeling is with traders returning from holiday, the Dubai news overhang and upcoming economic news, volatility will pickup...the market has been to complacent. Use any pullbacks this week to load up on a Santa Claus rally.
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Here We Go Again!

Quick note:
Market confidence has been hit hard by Wednesday's news that Dubai World, a government investment company, has asked creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May. That stoked fears, mainly in Europe on Thursday, of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in emerging markets.

Is this the unwinding of the Dollar Carry trade?

I stated in a recent post that gold could correct and to start shifting into oil. Use this opportunity to buy Pride Int'l (PDE) or add to Transocean (RIG).
This coming week will be again pivotal as we get results from black Friday and Cyber Monday as well as Jobs Report on Friday. Along with the news from Dubai, so get out your wish list.
More over the weekend as things develop.