Itz Pix exits the remaining 1/2 position of Proshares Ulra Short DJ-AIG Crude Oil (SCO) it just hit the $39 STOP. Having entered @ $38.50, Itz nets a +1.3% profit. The first 1/2 position netted 12%, in total the position gained 6.73% in 1 week. Note, Itz Stock Chartz is looking for WTI Oil to retest the recent highs $110 level and may re-enter the short oil position again...follow Twitter for updates. Click here for past posts
Itz is suggesting those who entered the $37 SCO entry level on Friday SELL the 1/2 position @ $41.50 for a 12.16% gain in 2 days. Hold onto the $38.50 entry level position and raise STOP to $39. SCO Chart Click Here for more Itz Posts
WTI Crude Oil finally reversed today after hitting a 30 month high this morning. ITZ suggested last week to enter Proshares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (SCO) at $38.50 & $37, for an average cost basis of $37.75. It closed today at $39.18. SCO ChartThe Gold/Oil Ratio bounced right off the 13 level Chart
Once again, despite Middle East violence, congressional tug of war over our budget,collapsing US Dollar and $112 a barrel for WTI crude oil the stock market was basically flat for the week.
Next week is the start of earnings season with Alcoa (AA), JPMorgan (JPM) & Google (GOOG) leading things off. On the economic front, we have April options expiration, CPI, PPI, Beige Book & then the following week WTI Crude Oil expiration.
The story this week was oil...with Brent over $126 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate finally hitting ITZ's target of $110, last electronic traded quote of $113. Whatever reason one places on WHY oil is rising, the concern remains who will win this race. At some point either oil will put us back into a deep recession or oil will put in a blowoff top and the premium will evaporate.
Oil was not the only commodity making headlines, ITZ fave 'silver' is within 57 cents of an all time high at $40.93. The high back in 1980 of $41.50 came on an attempt by the Hunt brothers to corner the silver market. But $41.50 back then is not the same as today's inflation adjusted price, if adjusted for inflation silver should trade at $111.46 inflation calculator That's not even taking into consideration the Gold / Silver Ratio currently at 36, historically it has been as low as 20:1 chart link So, doing the math that means adjusted for inflation gold @ $1475 should be at $3962 and a 20:1 ratio put silver at $198 an ounce! Not saying it will get there, but if one wants to compare peak (1980) to current 'peak' this needs to be considered. Lets not neglect WTI oil peaking at $40 a barrel in 1980 inflation adjusted to today's price $107.
So bottom line, with oil over $100 for several weeks now, how long will it take before it impacts the recovery? With earnings season beginning, estimates call for high $90s on S&P earnings, jobs seems to have turned towards improvement. The next few weeks will decide if things are really on the mend or we're heading back into recession.
ITZ CHARTZ
Itz Pix Videos
Brand New Silver Bars and Rounds
Markets going up is bullish, but markets being led up by small caps is extremely bullish, says Ryan Detrick, chief technical strategist, Schaeffer's Investment Research.
The signs that are pointing to a more optimistic outlook in the new quarter, with Jordan Kotick, Barclays Capital global head of technical strategy.
Bill Miller, Legg Mason Capital Mgmt. chairman & CIO, discusses his outlook on the oil, commodities and China booms. Despite the runs in the markets, stocks are cheap
The current price of gas is capable of destroying demand, says David Greenberg, Greenberg Capital oil trader.
How to play energy... an investing edge on the markets, with Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services; Doug Roberts; Channel Capital Research; Joe Battipaglia, Stifel Nicolaus, and John Kilduff, Again Capital.
To see more Itz Stock Chartz Blog Reports Click Here
Itz is suggesting adding second half position Proshares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (SCO) @ $37.00. Itz entered yesterday @ $38.50, average cost basis now $37.75 and lets lower the STOP to $35 CHART
The current price of gas is capable of destroying demand, says David Greenberg, Greenberg Capital oil trader.
ITZ PIX Portfolio is again re-entering the Proshares Ultra Short DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF, ticker symbol (SCO). West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is at the moment testing the $110 level. Oil continues to trade on geopolitical fears, Nigerian is scheduled for elections this weekend after being delayed 1 week. News out of Japan today on another large earthquake has added to oils rise. Fundamentally, there remains ample supply of crude oil on the market ..read storyUAE Oil Minister: Oil Prices Hit By "Perfect Storm"
Itz had entered a partial position in SCO a few weeks ago & exited with a small loss. ITZ is today suggesting to re-enter a 1/2 position on SCO, keeping a tight stop & watching next week seeing how things play out. Again this is a high risk position and is being used in part as a hedge to ITZ PIX energy positions. Follow ITZ on Twitter for up to date alerts.
Throughout the day today Itz re-posted several blog reports on silver & Silver Wheaton from 2010 & 2011 via Twitter >>link
Here are a few past posts .. Link ..Link
Itz Stock Chartz reiterates Silver Wheaton (SLW) $65 in 12 months. Brand New Silver Bars and Rounds
Once again the markets churns higher, as the the Dow Jones & Transports mark new intraday highs. The leaders this past week were the Biotech Index +5.55%, Crude Oil +3.62% & the Transports +3.13%. The catalysts were the BLS Non-Farm Payrolls Report, the Federal Reserve & the energy market. The Non-Farm Payrolls showed a gain of +216,000 jobs in March. Just slightly more than the 185K to 200K estimates and the unemployment rate declined to 8.8% and the lowest since early 2008. Read BLS Report
The report was a positive one, however we need job gains of 150Kper month to absorb new workers graduating into the work force plus newly immigrated workers. Treading just over 200K heading in the right direction, but we need to see job gains in the +350K range to really see an improvement in unemployment.
The Federal Reserve weighed in on the Jobs Report, now leaning towards the opinion of ending the 'loose' monetary policy. Dudley said the +216,000 jobs number was a "notable" improvement and evidence the $600 billion QE2 program was successful. While, Philly Fed President Plosser was cautioning on leaving rates low too long and suggested the FOMC could hike rates in 2011. Richmond Fed President Lacker also said he would not be surprised if the Fed hiked rates before year-end. He also said the QE2 program should be reviewed with an idea on how to end it early. He said at some point the Fed will need to pull back from asset purchases and begin asset sales and that could happen this year. The Fed's next meeting is April 27th.
The dollar spike just after the Jobs Report, but managed to retreat back to it's lows by the close, maybe an early sign of what may come?
Now to the big bull in the china shop...black gold...oil! If a lower dollar, rise in employment, Fed speak and geopolitical tensions weren't enough, oil moved even higher, ever so close to the pivotal $110 mark. The conflict between Gaddafi and rebel forces is becoming more and more prolonged and make now last months as the U.S. military involvement backs off and NATO takes over. Both WTI & Brent crude oil broke out of 'Ascending Trangle' daily chart formations. ITZ had noted this earlier in the week and exited Proshares SCO @ $41. On Wednesday, Prersident Obama tried to address the rise in energy prices, but it sounded like a broken record of previous president's attacking our country's dependence on oil. >> read more
Dan Dicker, who has spent nearly three decades in the oil market, has a profoundly disturbing explanation of why the price of oil, and the gasoline that comes from the crude product, has risen so dramatically in recent months. >>link
So. as we ended the first quarter and started the second on April Fool's day one needs to ask...what's next? The window dressing is done and now we look forward to earnings season, the major indexes are testing recent highs. The Dow Jones/ Dow Transports are confirming a rally under the Dow Theory. The Russell 2000 came very close to a new historic high at 855.77 missing it by only five points. The S&P nearly touched 1338 but declined to close on 1332. ITZ continues to hold to its 1,400 target for 2011. The technicals look good, now we're facing the fundamentals coming up...earnings. Yes the one problem remains high oil prices, not so much that they are high, but HOW long will they remain high?
ITZ STOCK CHARTZ
ITZ PIX VIDEOS For The Week
An outlook on the oil market as the unrest in the Middle East shows no signs of calming down, with John Hofmeister, former Shell Oil president/CEO, U.S. Operations.
An update on where oil is headed and the impact of the current unrest in Libya, with John Kilduff, Again Capital.
Discussing whether skyrocketing oil and gas prices are slowing down the economic recovery and the Republicans' alternative to President Obama's energy plan, with David Vitter, (R-LA); Joy Reid, The Reid Report; John Hofmeister, former Shell Oil president/CEO Of U.S. operations and John Kilduff, Again Capital.
Drill Baby Drill! FBN’s Eric Bolling sounds off on the administration's energy policy.
CNBC's Bertha Coombs has the silver play in this uncertain market. Silver could close above $40 in a month or so.
Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group managing director tells investors whether silver will shine or tarnish their portfolios this spring.
A look at why investors should buy silver over gold, with Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital chief global strategist.
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