Thursday, January 28, 2010


Key levels being tested on the Dollar, Gold & Oil today as well as the S&P500.

$SPX Broke Support...Downside Objective

Technical damage on the $SPX chart as the 1080/1085 support has broken. Next big area of support is the 19.1% Fibonacci Retracement levels around 1045/1050 just about a 10% correction.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Crude Oil Stocks Attractive

S&P500 Retracement Levels

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Dollar -Gold -Silver: Update

The fundamentals for the dollar($USD) remain bearish. Once the dollar’s consolidation runs its course, the trend lower should resume. A break over 79 should see 81 tested.

Genco Shipping (GNK) Update

Twelve-days ago I suggested for those using covered calls to rollup & out on the GNK call trade. link
Genco Shipping (GNK) On this covered call the Jan $25 GNK-AE sold on Oct 21 for $1.70, suggest BUYING it back to close position for $0.50 and rolling up and out to the [SELL] April $28 Call ticker GNK-DV for $1.65 bid. The original cost for GNK was $22.90 - $1.70 + $0.50 - $1.65= $20.05
With GNK trading down under $22, the April $28 call is @ $0.35 ask, suggest buying back to close; open position.That would place the GNK cost basis at $20.40. Looking to resell a call as GNK trends to higher levels.

Another Chance To Back Up Da Truck: RIMM

Investors are being given another opportunity to BUY Research In Motion (RIMM) at the low $60's level. This stock is extremely undervalued and a bargain, I've posted several reports on why.. >>LINK >>LINK
Hapoalim Securities Starts Research in Motion (RIMM) with a BUY, $100 Target >>READ REPORT
Everyone is focused on Apple...when RIMM is the bargain!

GDX Enters the Itz Pix Portfolio

The metals are selling off this morning, gold is testing that $1086 level. Itz is suggesting a new BUY, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) currently trading at it's 200-ma and lower end of an uptrend channel. Gold is selling on the China newes of credit tightening, the US Dollar is now creeping slowly to the 79 level. Suggest taking a position here and watching how the weeks plays out with the State of the Union and FOMC meeting and also Bernanke reconfirmation. Set stops accordingly. Entry Price $42.50

Monday, January 25, 2010

Volatility & Financials

The Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked last week off of the Brown win in MA, indecision on Fed Chairman Bernanke and the Obama bank bashing. Well, as I stated last week..let things settle down and rationality set in. The $VIX has backed off and the banks are leaders in the market today, plus it appears as if Bernanke will be re-appointed. The Itz Pix portfolio stocks JPM & LNC are up. However, we have the State of the Union this week which could stem and bounce today & possibly tomorrow. Apple reports after the close...lately there has been the 'Sell the News' with earnings reports...let's see if the trend continues and what tone that sets for the markets.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Transocean (RIG) Getting Attractive ..Again

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Update

I agree with Joe Terranova and his JPMorgan Chase (JPM) comments on CNBC's Half-Time on Fast Money (see video clip below). Technicals support buying or adding to position [Itz Pix entered in November 2009 @ $42]. Note testing both the 200 ema * sma, intraday low right @ 50% retracement level. President Obama's banking proposal will take some years to take effect and most likely will get watered down going through Congress. Use the market's fear & weakness to buy &/or add to positions.

Hecla Mining (HL) Exits Portfolio

Hecla hit the stop Thursay of $5.50 and exited with a 117% gain in7 months. Looking to re-enter if a reversal takes hold at lower levels. Previous post on HL >>READ

Chart Review 1-22-10

Just going over a few charts.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

JPMorgan (JPM) & Proposed New Bank Regulations

President Barack Obama proposed Thursday new rules designed to restrict the size and activities of the U.S.'s largest biggest banks, the latest in a series of administration moves to curb Wall Street. >>READ STORY

My take is that this proposal is very confusing...How do you define 'Proprietary' Or 'Risk'? Sounds like the administration is making this up as they go along?
I would not sell JPM here, let this settle for a few days and see how it plays out as more details emerge. Using $40 level as support and the approaching 200-ma.

CRB Index

The Itz Pix Portfolio is weighted towards commodities and the stronger dollar is taking its toll this week. One key indicator I use is the Reuters CRB Index ($CRB). In the 'short-term' it has been in anuptrend channel. The chart below from yesterday (we'll know after the close what today's # is) appears to be testing the lower end of that channel. NOW, a break below this channel would be very bearish and would suggest exiting or scaling back on the commodity trades. Note the 300 level on the longer term chart...resistance/support.

Investors Intelligence

As I've been calling for a rally in the has now gathered momentum off of the China and banking news. Below is a chart of the Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio, which is at the same leves where it last saw a correction. With 53% Bulls & 15% Bears...investor sentiment is historically high and this may be the start of a major correction.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Markets React to China's GDP

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy finished 2009 with a flourish as a 10.7 percent year-on-year increase in fourth-quarter GDP took full-year growth to 8.7 percent, easily surpassing Beijing's 8 percent target. >>READ
This news is bearish for equities...expect continued selling in market Thursday. As I type the US Dollar ($USD) is trading @ 78.522.

Wednesday's selling was due to expectations on China's tightening credit and applying economic restraints...most expected a rally off the senatorial election in Massachusetts.

Dollar Takes Off!

What did I tell you the otherday? WATCH THE DOLLAR!

As the dollar is breaking above the 200-ema, the Euro is breaking below it's 200-ema. The crowded trade is taking it on the, silver, oil well as stocks.
Does this mean  that trade has ended? Has the Republican victory changed the tide of overspending by our government and a lower dollar? I don't believe so. Ask yourself how much have things really changed since March 2009?
I'd mentioned over the weeks that we'd be entering a period of transition, the key is jobs for a recovering economy. That would rally the dollar, but today's action is more of a 'cut spending' agenda and the vote in MA is a proxy sending that message to Washington and the Democratic Congress. So...dollar rallys...but how high and how long? I've annotated a chart that I presented a few weeks ago projecting a rally to 82 on the dollar. As I noted yesterday watch the bounce off the its watch the 200-ema. This dollar rally may have further to go.

Strategy, add to energy position on this correction, lighten up on precious metals. Continue to like financials and technology stocks as I written about over the last few weeks. On the radar will be silver stocks such as Silver Wheaton, looking to add to that position (SLW) in the $15 range. Again use weakness to buy or add.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The Dollar & Crude Oil

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t need to raise oil production this year as its output of natural gas liquids increases, the International Energy Agency’s deputy executive director said. >>READ STORY

After peaking just around resistance last week of $84, crude oil has pulled back and looks like it may gravitate towards its 100-ema @ $75. The build in crude and the worry about a continued economic recovery has stemmed this rally, that I was forecasting in oil. Today's news from OPEC has added more cold water to the rally. My premise had been that oil was and has been following a 4 month lag to the movement in gold prices....that remains to be seen. If the winter weather goes back into a deep freeze and as earnings reports come out this week could rerignite the expected global recovery we could see oil prices rebound. On Thursday, China is expected to report a 20 percent year-over-year jump in industrial output for December, which would be the fastest pace in close to four years. >> READ STORY

The dollar still appears to be putting in a bullish flag formation. Testing it's 40-ema which had been resistance on the way down, now appears to be this.

Friday, January 15, 2010

End of Week Review

Well Intel & JPMorgan reported and the market sold off. Everything was down this week and it appears that the markets were looking for a reason to take profits. Afterall since last March, those that had bought are now taking profits on a tax basis versus doing so back in December '09.

This video clip from Larry Kudlow tonight, which is about 15 minute in length, I found reflects how I feel about this market and the outlook in 2010. Itz Pix is weighted towards commodities and I believe is the sector that will perform.

Thursday, January 14, 2010


Intel reported after the close and knocked the cover off the ball, JP Morgan Chase reports before the open tomorrow.

Hecla Mining (HL) News:  Five Hecla executives sold shares this week, the company's top executives sold a combined $2.5 million in shares. >>READ Now this alone may not present a reason to sell...however the technicals suggest setting up a stop at $5.50

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) News: Tenet Healthcare Corporation on Thursday announced it has signed a multi-year agreement with UnitedHealthcare that will give the insurer’s commercial and Medicare Advantage plan participants access to Tenet's network. >>READ UnitedHealth Group Inc. Earnings Call scheduled for Thu, Jan 21

Abbott Labs (ABT) for those that sold the Jan. $52.50 covered calls, with the stock trading over the strike ($55.35)...well let it get called. The stock was entered back in August 2009 cost basis $43.54 for a $8.96 and a 20.6% in 6 months.

Genco Shipping (GNK)  On this covered call the Jan $25 GNK-AE sold on Oct 21 for $1.70, suggest BUYING it back to close position for $0.50 and rolling up and out to the [SELL] April $28 Call ticker GNK-DV for $1.65 bid. The original cost for GNK was $22.90 - $1.70 + $0.50 - $1.65= $20.05

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

3 Great Buys

Google (GOOG), took a hit on it's stand against China, which brought it down to the lower end of it's uptrend channel and moving average as highlighted in the chart below. BUY!

Research In Motion (RIMM), bounce off the 50 ma and the bottom trendline, it should benefit from any shakeout from the Google/China situation. If China boots them out the Blackberry, which already has some Chinese deals inked...should profit from this matter. RIMM is cheap on a valuation basis with a 0.9 PEG it remains one of my favorite technology companies.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), reports earnings this Friday 1/15/10 and I believe and have stated numerous times on this blog that $50 will easily be hit and it should go much higher by yearend. With an attractive and bullish yield curve, financials haven't sat this pretty in decades. I was impressed with Jamie Dimon's testimony infront of the Regulatory Committee today defending JPM & himself on his action. Again JPM is a steal!

Mid-Day Review Dollar, Oil, Metals

Dollar, metals & energy are digesting earnings & China news. Longer term I see a lower dollar, higher commodity prices.