Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Did You Get Long Crude Oil?

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WTI Crude Oil rallied over $2 today, Proshares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO) +4.91%. ITZ entered two 1/4 positions back on April 16th @ $24.85 & on the 17th @ $25.85. Currently ITZ is using a trailing stop, a 8ema & 21ema on a 60 minute chart. Current stops are $27.40 & $26.85. ITZ has not increased the position, in part to several weekly indicators have not confirmed. If there is a confirmation, then we'll suggest adding and also revise the current sell stops.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week but remained in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. As reported today in EIA Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data  LINK

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped the most this year as a government report showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles tumbled while oil inventories rose less than analysts estimated. Read Story

 ITZ has been noting for several weeks that gasoline prices were in decline.... recent post for more posts BLOG

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Longterm Gold Observations

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Looking at a 40 year chart of gold, comparing the 70's rally and meltdown to that of the last 13 years.

click on charts to expand images

Gold Volatility Beats U.S. Stocks

CFTC Is Looking at Gold, Silver Moves, Chilton Says

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Gold Videos

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Gold Falling to $800?: Gold-CPI Ratio Says Yes

Gold Demand Curve Bows to Three Masters

Gold Likely to Fall Further

Gold Price Drop `Excessive,' UBS Says

Drivers of Gold Are Still in Place: Cuggino

Monday, April 15, 2013

WTI Crude Oil -Time To Get Long?

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WTI Crude Oil tested $87 today, we could see a bit more selling to $85. ITZ suggests phasing into Proshares Ultra CrudeOil (UCO) Buy-Zone $25/$26. If still in Proshares SCO, run a tight trailing stop.

Mark Fisher

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Weekend Update: Crude Oil, Gold, Gasoline & Dollar

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The good news for motorists is that gasoline prices are expected to be more affordable in the coming months than they were during the two preceding summers. Read Story

Growing domestic crude oil production has contributed to lower crude oil imports (see This Week in Petroleum, March 20, 2013). At 8.5 million bbl/d, U.S. crude oil gross imports in 2012 were the lowest for any year since 1997. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will exceed U.S. crude oil gross imports as early as the end of 2013, the first time this will have occurred since February 1995. Link

On Thursday April 11th, ITZ posted a chart on Twitter highlighting the H&S &/or Bear Flag Twitter Link

West Texas Intermediate crude fell-the International Energy Agency trimmed forecasts for global oil demand. Brent’s premium to WTI shrank to the smallest level in 14 months. LINK

Thursday, April 11, 2013

WTI Crude Oil Going To $87

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Taking a look at the NYMEX Crude Oil 8 hour chart. Looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern as well as a possible Bear Flag pattern. Watch the $92 area (neckline/support), a break below & a measured move towards $88/$87 is possible. Re-entering with a 1/2 position Proshares UltraShort Crude Oil (SCO) $39.30 and adding to position on a break below $92 post open, follow on Twitter.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Copper, Housing, Finance & Russell 1000 - Charts

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ITZ takes a look at a few sector daily & weekly charts: Copper, Housing, Finance & Russell 1000.

Copper Market Seen by Standard Bank as Liable to ‘Tighten’ Read Story

Lumber prices skyrocket on U.S. housing rebound Read Story

Big Four Bank Earnings: What to Expect Read Story

Last charts take a look at the Russell 1000 ETF(IWB) top holdings Financial Service 16.3%; Industrial materials 12.84% & Energy 12.64% Link

Saturday, April 6, 2013

ITZ Weekend Review: 4-5-13

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Job creation slowed to a crawl during March, with the U.S. economy creating just 88,000 positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent. Friday's report fell short of economist expectations of 200,000 new jobs, confirming some of the weakness in recent reports. Moreover, the drop in the jobless rate was little more than a statistical anomaly, with the labor-force participation rate tumbling to a 34-year low of 63.3 percent.

With speculation rising that the Federal Reserve soon would start winding down its asset purchase program, the weak jobs report probably keeps the central bank on hold at least through the end of the year. The central bank has tied the end of its zero interest rate policy to a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent.

Gold rallied over 1.5 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain since November, as disappointing U.S. job data fueled expectations the Federal Reserve will continue its bullion-friendly bond purchases. Crude oil fell to an eight-month low as the bleak U.S. jobs data dimmed the outlook for fuel demand in the world's largest oil consumer.

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies, hitting nearly two-week lows against the euro, as weaker-than-expected jobs data raised concerns that the pace of recovery in the American labor market has slowed. The Bank of Japan's massive stimulus announcement should keep the yen's downtrend intact. ITZ sees a near term rally in the Euro, with softness in the jobs data. But this is a minor pullback in the U.S. economy and expect a slowdown in the next couple of quarters and then we will see growth picking up again in the last quarter of the year.

Art Cashin, UBS, shares his thoughts on the dismal employment number. Where can you go to hide?


WTI Crude reversed @ $97.70 level link

Silver tested support slightly below $27 level link

Back in March ITZ highlighted the similarites bewtween Apple & Google on Twitter when anaysts gave a $1,000 price target--- Negative Divergence Top

Targeting $730

ITZ entered Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) on Friday

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Crude Oil Reverses and Heads Lower

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ITZ re-entered Proshares UltraShort CrudeOil ETF (SCO) this morning with a 1/2 position cost basis $37, it closed at $38.58 - STOP set at $38.50.

WTI Crude Oil reversed around $97.70, resistance on a daily chart, which ITZ posted on Twitter this week. Downside support is $92.50.

Oil Inventory Data: Late Tuesday, data from the API revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose 4.70 million barrels and gasoline stocks were down 5.00 million barrels in the week ended March 29.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.70 million barrels to 388.60 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. EIA Report

The week before, crude oil inventories increased 3.30 million barrels to 385.90 million barrels.
Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories moved down by 0.60 million barrels last week, after shedding by 1.60 million barrels in the prior week, but remained in the middle of the average range.
Analysts were expecting crude oil inventories to rise 2.10 million barrels last week.

Barclays Cuts 2013 Oil Price Forecast as Supply Risks Fade Link 
Lowering 2013 Brent price from $125 to $112 and WTI from $108 to $95. The note added that an early resolution of the Iranian situation and recovery in its export volumes, a slowing of China's recovery or an interruption to the nascent recovery of U.S. oil demand could all force down the price of oil.

more crude oil posts link