Monday, January 28, 2013

Apple Stock 'Epic Bounce Candidate'

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Chart technicals show that shares of Apple could be due for big gains, Carter Worth says.
Past ITZ Apple posts click here

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Apple (AAPL) Charts

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Apple's market cap has declined about $250 billion from last year's top @ $700 per share. Currently neck in neck,  with the former leader Exxon Mobil Read

ITZ takes a look at several valuation indicators versus Apple, Microsoft, Intel & Qualcomm.
click on charts to expand images

Long term look at Apple's stock price when it has been at overbought/oversold points, using the 200 day moving average. In just the past year we've seen +50% to currently -26%.

Recent Apple Earnings Update

Laszlo Birinyi on the Stock Market’s Future Trajectory & Apple

Thursday, January 24, 2013

ITZ Revised Price Targets On Apple (AAPL)

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Apple plans to move away from a more conservative financial reporting style and offer broader guidance. LINK

Apple's new reporting format will test new assumptions and that the difficult year-over-year compares will begin to ease up. The stock is in a transition from growth to value, or as ITZ calls it a quasi- value. Depending on what management decides to do with all that cash; $145 per share. Will it go the path of Microsoft raising the dividend and share buyback? Or go out and buy another company to boost growth? This concern will weigh on the stock's price valuation near term.

ITZ is lowering 2013E EPS from $50 to $46 and 2014E EPS from $55 to $51 FY. Q1 earnings came in $13.81A; Q2 $11.50 est ; Q3 $10.40 & Q4 $10.30. Revenue from $182.1B to $178.5B for 2013 and 2014 from $193.8B to $185.5B

Valuation Price Target: ITZ places a $625 PT based on 10xs 2013 EPS $46 + $165 cash and for 2014 $710 based on 10xs $51EPS + $200 cash per share.

Shares could continue to decline near term ~ $425 next support level.
Past posts: ITZ Apple Q1 earnings report Apple Below $500

Top rated UBS analyst Steve Milunovich cut his price target for the second time this week. Yet he still has a 'Buy' on the stock. Find out why he told Fast Money $425 could be a good guess for the bottom.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Apple (AAPL) Reports Q1 Earnings

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Apple reported Q1 2013 earnings and the stock is selling off in after-hours trading down 10% around $460 a share.

The company reported that it sold 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, compared with 37 million in the same quarter a year ago. Many investors had hoped that the company would sell 50 million iPhones, which drives Apple's earnings. Sold a "record" 22.9 million iPads in the quarter, compared to 15.4 million a year ago. The company also sold 4.1 million Mac computers, compared to 5.2 million in the same quarter last year.

For the quarter ended Dec. 29, Apple reported a profit of $13.08 billion, up 0.1% from $13.06 billion a year earlier. On a per-share basis, earnings fell to $13.81 a share from $13.87 a share as the latest period had slightly more shares outstanding.

Revenue jumped 18% to $54.5 billion, with 61% of the top line coming from international sales.
In the conference call management stated it will from now on give more realistic earnings estimates, compared to past sandbag (beatable) estimates. Being known for traditionally giving conservative guidance, said it expects second-quarter revenue between $41 billion and $43 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast revenue of $45.38 billion. Apple didn't provide a per-share earnings estimate for the second quarter.

The company still can boast about the amount of cash it has hoarded: $137 billion or $145 per share.
ITZ has noted numerous times on Apple's ex-cash valuation link

Most expected risks for Apple's ASP/gross margin, slowing growth, evolutionary versus revolutionary steps in innovation, legal disputes, macro and potential for supply constraints.

Expectations are for easier year over year compares, potential positive supply chain data into the next product cycle, & improving gross margin likelihood to help reaccelerate earnings and see the company as well-positioned to continue to take value share in its core smartphone, tablet, and PC markets.

ITZ continues to target $775 read  with $13.81 Q1 reported.... estimates Q2 '13 $11.65; Q3 $11.14 & Q4 $10.91 with FY $47.51 & CY $50 eps estimates.

Enter Proshares SCO- Short Crude Oil

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Crude is pulling back here let's enter a 1/4 position @ $37. ITZ was and continues to target $36/$35 to add to position.
click on chart to expand image

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Lower Crude Prices- Time To Enter SCO?

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WTI Crude Oil nearing $97 today, it's been trading in synch with the S&P500. ITZ is looking for a bit more upside but a near term pullback to come.
click on charts to expand images
Gold/Oil Ratio is giving a SELL signal:
Proshares Ultra Short Crude Oil (SCO) ITZ is looking to phase into under $36. Follow on Twitter for current updates.
The Obama administration has delayed a decision on TransCanada Corp's rerouted Keystone XL oil pipeline until after March, even though Nebraska's governor on Tuesday approved a plan for part of the line running through his state. Read

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets as oil hits a four-month high. And Nebraska's governor approves a new route for the Keystone pipeline.

Monday, January 21, 2013

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Apple Trades Below $500

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Apple reports Q1 '13 earnings next week, company CFO guidance is for $52 billion revenue & $11.75 diluted earnings per share.
Q1 2012 were $46.3 revenue & $13.06 eps.
The street estimates are $54.4 billion  & $13.40 eps.

Phones sales have been reported to be strong, Q4 '11 Verizon had 4.2 million unit sales, currently they see 5.2M; AT&T 7.6M currently 8.1M a total increase of 13.6% from both companies.

ITZ believes Apple will beat the street number coming in closer to $14.00 earnings and $55 billion revenue.
What Apple’s Stock Price Says: Murphy LINK
Tom Demark, founder of Market Studies, says the Apple rally could be more than 20 percent.LINK

ITZ posted this chart 2 months ago 

A shift in Apple's growth rate means "tremendous turnover in the shareholder base," Sanford Bernstein's Tony Sacconaghi says.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Silver Is A Buy...followup

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ITZ follow up to its recent post Silver Is A Buy 

Looking a the Euro correlation to the Gold Silver Ratio (G/S Ratio). ITZ favorite play remains Silver Wheaton (SLW).

Dominic Schnider, Head of Commodity Research, UBS Wealth Management says platinum, palladium and silver will do well this year amid loose monetary policies and a recovery in the global economy.

Monday, January 7, 2013

ITZ Portfolio Update

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ITZ Current suggested positions:

Apple AAPL entered 1/4 positions 5/17/11 @ $539; 7/23/12 @ $588; 7/25/12 @ $572 & 10/9/12 @ $626 = average cost basis $581. Chart

ITZ has posted several posts and continues to be bullish on Apple most recent post link

Apple reports Q1 '13 eps on January 23 2pm PST Company estimates call for $52B revenue & $11.75 eps.  The street is looking for $54.4B & $13.40 eps. Key number to be watching will be 'margins' read report

Kodiak Oil & Gas KOG 1/4 positions 12/3/12 @ $8.25 & 12/31/12 @ $8.50 with a stop @ $9.00
 Chart  Post

National Oilwell Varco NOV 1/4 positions 12/12/12 @$66.75 & 12/14/12 @$65 Chart Post suggested stop $69

Silver Wheaton SLW 1/4 position entered 1/4/13 @ $35.10, plan to add to position down to $33 Chart Post

*First Solar FSLR was stopped out 12/7/12 @ $30 for a 5% gain

Proshares Ultra Crude Oil ETF UCO 1/4 position 9/19/12 @ $32; 1/4 position 10/11/12 @ $31 & a 1/2 position on 10/15/12 @ $29.75 avg cost $30.60 Chart STOP on entire position @ $29.50

Gold Oil Ratio Stochastics & RSI on weekly chart are signaling SELL, lets use a trailing STOP on UCO - currently $29.50. ITZ has a $35 PT. Most Recent UCO Post


Friday, January 4, 2013

Apple Update

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Apple appears to be setting up a Falling Wedge pattern, it reports earnings in 3 weeks that could provide the catalyst breaking it higher.
Past posts: Dec 17 Dec 15 Dec 7


WTI Crude Oil Hitting Resistance

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WTI Crude Oil hit the $93/$94 target and most likely could see a pullback here towards upper $80s. But a break above this resistance places a price objective of $100 a barrel.

Oil slipped on Thursday, after prices hit 11-week highs, on worries about looming U.S. budget battles and signs of growing concern by the U.S. Federal Reserve about buying bonds to spur economic growth. The uncertainty because of the budget cuts and the ceiling debate seems to have tempered the markets' enthusiasm that things were getting better and that's why things have stalled.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute, released on Thursday after the settlement, showed crude oil inventories tumbled by 12 million barrels last week, led by declines in the Gulf Coast, where refiners typically draw down stocks for end of the year accounting purposes. U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) data out at 11 a.m. today.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Silver Is A Buy

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Silver almost tripled since the end of 2008, lagging behind only platinum in gains for precious metals this year as policy makers from the U.S. to China to Europe pledged more action to boost economies. That’s attracting investors betting that stimulus will stoke inflation and debase currencies. It’s also luring those wagering growth will strengthen industrial demand for silver, 53 percent of which is used in everything from televisions to batteries.
Read More

ITZ favorite play in the silver market is Silver Wheaton (SLW). Having traded it in the past has proven very profitable.

Silver and SLW are attractive here, we had a nearterm run up & today a sharp selloff on Federal Reserve news. But ITZ is basing the rise on silver as well as gold on the rising debt ceiling. The upcoming problem Congress will face, will most certainly mean our nation will raise the debt ceiling...again.

ITZ favors silver over gold and in the silver sector Silver Wheaton (SLW) is best of breed.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Index Review 2013

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ITZ posted this $SPX chart earlier today on Twitter

Looking at the QQQ (AAPL) & RUT

Proshares UCO Hitting Resistance

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Proshares Ultra Crude Oil (UCO) is testing resistance around the $30 level. ITZ believe it has more upside targeting $35. The GOR Gold-Oil Ratio chart as posted in previous posts, although raising a caution flag, still has some more to go. ITZ average cost basis $30.60 on UCO.