Saturday, March 31, 2012

ITZ Weekend Commodity Update

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WOW! What a first quarter it has been, best performing since 1998. But what will next Q bring? This coming Friday we get March 2012 NFP Jobs Report and soon after corporate earnings start rolling in.

ITZ likes the commodity sector, if the economy is seeing improvement...well this sector should benefit. The US Dollar looks like it is in a Head & Shoulders pattern, set to break lower. Gold, silver & oil look set to head higher.

Two more stocks on the buy list are GDX the gold miners index and oil services stock Halliburton (HAL), ITZ already has suggested Nation Oilwell Varco (NOV) in the OIH.

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Thursday, March 29, 2012

WTI Crude Oil Update 3-29-12

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ITZ has noted in past blog posts read that WTI Crude Oil is in an Inverse Head & Shoulders formation. Talk of the world's strategic reserves being released along read with Wednesday's EIA weekly report showing a huge increase...have placed pressure on WTI oil prices this week. ITZ believes we're near a cycle low here and oil will reverse higher as indicated in the charts below.

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Wednesday, March 28, 2012

FCX & Chart Updates

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  ***UPDATE***  Freeport McMoran $FCX Hits $37 STOP link for a 6.9% loss.

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Monday, March 26, 2012

Gold Heading Higher

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Did Ben Bernanke put a possible QE3 on the table today?  Bernanke Speech --- News

Gold appears to be putting in the right shoulder in an Inverse H&S patter as ITZ pointed out a week ago... Read  March 14th chart

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Friday, March 23, 2012

Chart Of The Day-- $VIX

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ITZ Adds To Silver Wheaton Position (SLW)

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ITZ took a 1/4 position Tuesday @ $32.50 link and yesterday when it dropped below $32 link 

On the open this morning ITZ went to a full position in Silver Wheaton @ $32.75 with an average cost basis of $32.49. SET STOP @ $30

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Silver Wheaton Reports Record Earnings (SLW)

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Silver Wheaton Reports Record Operating and Financial Results in 2011; Earnings and Operating Cash Flows Nearly Double READ

 ITZ suggested re-entering SLW on March 20th READ

A conference call will be held Friday, March 23, 2012, starting at 11:00 am (Eastern Time) to discuss these results.

ITZ added another 1/4 position today under $32 @ $31.95 (as directed on prior blog post) and will add to the position tomorrow....for up todate alerts follow ITZ on Twitter

In AHT 32.24 Up 0.26 (0.81%) 

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Let's Get Back Into This Silver Stock

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ITZ favorite silver play, Silver Wheaton (SLW) is back on the BUY Radar after having exited recently at $37 read.

They report Q4 earnings after the close this Thursday the 22nd of March. Street consensus for quarterly earnings is $0.42, with $0.37 low & $0.48 on the high side. FY 2011 should come in at $1.62.

FY 2010 eps $0.42;  FY 2011 est  $1.62 & FY 2012 est $2.18

At $33 Silver Wheaton is trading at 15xs 2012 estimated earnings, which ITZ believes a low valuation and a buy. As of December 31, 2010, Silver Wheaton had 14 long-term silver purchase agreements. Under these agreements, the company has the right to buy all or part of the silver production at a low fixed cost. So, beyond that initial investment, it is like growth without ongoing capital expenditures that can be used to hedge its own silver production. The company also has two long-term precious metal agreements similarly structured.

Silver Wheaton drew from 16 different mines in 2011 and it is expected to bring at least three more mines into production soon. read

On the daily chart SLW's Relative Strength (RSI) and Full Stochastic are giving an over sold reading. In the past this has proven to signal taking a position in SLW. ITZ suggests taking a 1/4 position here at $32.50. legging in again (1/4 position) under $32. Then waiting for the earnings report later this week to add to the position.

SET STOP @ $29.50

Monday, March 19, 2012

Taking A Position In This Copper Stock

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ITZ suggests entering this copper play Freeport McMoran (FCX). ITZ is entering a 1/2 position $39.75 with a $37 STOP, looking to add to position- once copper breaks above $4.00.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

ITZ Weekend Commodity Update 3-18-12

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CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead to where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

ITZ Raises Apple Price Target To $750

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Apple hit another centennial mark today...the $600 mark, before selling off on  news that Deutsche Bank had removed Apple from its “Shorter-term Opportunities' list.
“We are simply taking profits,” the note says, which was released at 12:43 p.m. Eastern Time. “We remain optimistic on Apple’s medium and long-term fundamentals.”

ITZ raised the 2012 price objective to $625 back on January 27th, with a FY12 forecast of $45 per diluted share and a 14 pe. The 2013 FY was raised to $48. Looking at current demand of the New iPad, upcoming iPhone 5 and possible iTV, ITZ is joining the club and adjusting current year & '13 & '14 earnings estimates.
Past ITZ Apple posts    CNBC Video

Mobility is key to Apple's future, it is not only the leading innovator but taking market share.
China has become increasingly important for Apple, and is now the company’s second largest market, thanks to the country’s accelerating growth. Estimates for smartphones sales call for 1 billion unit sales by 2013.

Most technicians have noted that Apple's chart is parabolic. Perhaps...but the price reflects the growth of the company and it's earnings. Near term perhaps it has gotten ahead of itself, but with the stock at $600 these are institutional traders not retail investors driving it higher.
The fundamentals are too strong and any dips have been quick as buyers step in.

Most investors are still underestimating Apple's future earnings power.

ITZ is now raising the 2012 Price Target to $750 from $625. Based on a 15 p/e ---current '12 FY earnings from $45 to $50 ; for FY '13 $60; and for FY '14 $72.
Even these numbers may prove to be conservative and require possible future adjusting.

The chart below takes 2009 through 2014 using a 10 to 15 p/e range... Apple could easily be over $1000 per share in 2 years.

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Time To Get Back Into This Energy Play

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Time to re-enter Devon Energy (DVN) around $72.50. ITZ played the Sym-Tri breakout back on February 6th LINK and within 8 days netted nearly 12% LINK

Looking to re-enter here and suggest setting stop at $69.

TBT Exits--- Hits Stop

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Proshares Short 20 Year Treasury ETF (TBT) hit the STOP this morning @ $20.75. We exit with a $1.00 gain +5.06% in 2 days, having entered 3/14/12 @ $19.75 LINK

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Gold Update

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Gold is now testing the $1650 level as ITZ noted last week LINK

Lets see if we see a reversal and the Inverted Head & Shoulders plays out.

click on chart to expand image