Wednesday, December 19, 2012

ITZ : WTI Crude Oil Update

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WTI Crude Oil is once again testing the $90 level. ITZ has been long crude via Proshares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO). Also tracking the weekly Gold/WTI Ratio (GOR) which has been in long oil signal. Below are 8 hour, daily & weekly futures charts for crude oil.

Using Proshres ETF $UCO, starting with $10,000 & rolling over gains would have netted 450% in 3 years. *Note similarities to last fall, UCO was declining as stochs & RSI declined...we're getting a move in crude sustainable needs to be seen.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Apple (AAPL) Retest's Recent Lows

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Warren Buffett has always reminded us that “price” is what you pay and “value” is what you get.
Apple once again tests the $500 level and has declined over 27% from its 2012 high of $700. ITZ has over the recent weeks noted how cheap Apple's valuation has become and remains.

How cheap has Apple become? Well that's look at a few other technology companies. Google, Amazon and Facebook.

Current fundamentals:

Apple remains the cheapest stock valuation on the market when assessing not only its current fundamentals, but its forward-looking potential as well.

ITZ continues to pound the table on Apple's ex-cash valuation, with $125 per share in cash this year & $165/$170 in 2013. UBS lowered earnings estimates for next year from $51.50 to $47 per shares & a price target from $780 to $700. But, they also issued a buy back in July 2012 PT $740, then raised that target in Sept to $780.

For whatever reason of selling, Apple one of the most owned stocks had a great year, normally we see year end 'sell the loser' tax loss. But with the Fiscal Cliff looming and certain higher capital gains next's more like sell the winners in '12 and losers in '13.

More than likely the current sellers will be back, with some action in DC & Apple reporting holiday earnings in January. Could we see lower prices before then? Well one cannot discount that, but one should use this opportunity to buy.  With five-year PEG ratio is 0.5  and a 2013 ex-cash p/e under 7 times...this stock is a ridiculous screaming BUY!

ITZ has a $50 earnings estimate for 2013, with a 12 times ex-cash valuation target of $775

Recent Apple post

Thursday, December 6, 2012

AAII Bearish Percentage 12-6-12

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 This week's AAII Survey - Bearish Sentiment bumps up slightly from previous week. LINK

Bullish 42.2%
Neutral 23.2%
Bearish 34.6%

click on chart to expand image

Apple's Cash Per Share

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As ITZ types this...Apple opens down testing $518 .... for whatever reason for selling... the fact remains the ex-cash valuation remains incredibly cheap! As highlighted in a previous post LINK

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

WTI Crude Oil Update 12-5-12

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For 2012 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has been in Cantango.
Contango means that the prices for delivery of WTI in distant months are higher than for the near month contracts. This represents a market where there's a storage premium. If people are willing to pay more for delivery in six months, the commodity is generally not in short supply.

Freeport McMoran surprised the market today, buying two oil & gas exploration companies..... the copper & gold company...getting into crude oil & nat gas? Why? Link

Sunday, December 2, 2012

ITZ Weekend Review 12-2-12

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The indexes have rallied since November 16th...but are now are levels that can either break higher or possibly test support retracing lower. The “fiscal cliff” of potential tax increases and spending cuts at the end of the year has kept companies cautious about spending and investing.

The Kumbaya...good feeling prior to Thanksgiving has now entered a stalemate level. With both sides drawing lines in the sand. Read

Once the fiscal cliff is addressed, investors will have greater confidence and certainty. Companies as well and will begin to spend.

ITZ added two more positions this week ... click here to see

Click On Charts To Expand Images