Friday, August 21, 2009
Is this rally for real? This market continues to confound even smart money, its resilience is unbelievable! Currently 1025 is resistance the next Fibonacci level on the upside is 1130, the 50% level from the '08 high to the March low. I was looking for a pullback last week...which we got (somewhat) but it wasn't to my 950 target, shallow rallies are being bought. My view continues to be that Sept/Oct historically has proven to be a bearish time for equities. What will drive stocks, earnings have several weeks before they start reporting. Today's report from Helicopter Ben was encouraging as well as the housing report. The bulls are using any economic report to support the rise in stocks. BUT....you know there was a but due... JOBS(albeit a lagging number & indicator) still weighs on the market. One interesting note I heard on CNBC today, 1 in 17 homes in CT is in default or 90 days behind in their mortgage payment. The consumer is strapped, how can they spend money when there are no jobs and they cannot even make payments on their homes? Our economy needs the consumer, yes the perception has been that the economy is improving and yes I understand that the markets discount this...but what if things don't improve. Productivity can only carry you so far. I remain cautious and as I mentioned several posts ago that you take some money off the table on some of the big gainers, have some cash to redeploy and hedge your positions.
Here is a quote from Larry McMillan's Weekly update, "When the market sold off, breadth declined sharply, thereby temporarily relieving the massive overbought condition that had been in place during the rally from early June to early July. But the rally over the past three days saw strong market breadth again, and once again the breadth is overbought.
In summary, there are still short-term negatives in place: $SPX is bumping up against the 1010 resistance area, breadth is overbought again, and the term structure of the $VIX futures also reflects an overbought condition. Intermediate-term indicators are bullish, however, with the possible exception of $VIX. In a nutshell, the market is likely to make a volatile move away from the 1010 area. "
*click on chart to expand image