Saturday, April 24, 2010
Itz Weekend Review
The rally that keeps giving! Nothing seems to be able to knock this bull down, last week the Goldman news was shrugged off the following Monday. Apple led the way with a one-week gain of 10%...it has surpassed Microsoft's market cap. Hard to imagine that just over a year ago everyone was calling for the end of the financial markets and a depression. Today most analysts are touting stocks and saying that you should buy Apple at $270??? But some how seeing all this "giddiness" reminds me of 1999/2000. One should have been buying back in February 2009, some 83% ago. When I hear that the 'Retail' investor is now coming into the market...that is a sure sign of caution and to start reducing my risk.
This week and next are going to be full of data and news. Just this coming week there will be over 2,300 companies reporting earnings like XOM, CAT, MMM & F. On top of that there's a FOMC meeting and most believe that this time around they 'will' change their "extended period" statement.
There appears to be far fewer analysts that continue to believe the Fed is going to remain on hold for the rest of the year. This is going to be a major stumbling block for the markets if the Fed changes the statement dramatically.
The S&P500 is closing in on the ITZ 1,230 target, many other indicators are in 'EXTREME' Overbought levels (I know sounding like a broken record)...but like I said, the next few weeks maybe the pivot point for a correction that's long over due. Earnings will be coming to an end, the FOMC meeting and then the big one, May 7th...JOBS REPORT. My view is that we'll see a meltup rally and the classic 'Sell in May'.
Bottom line, stay hedged and consider taking some money off the table.