Thursday, June 16, 2011

Entering Proshares Ultra Crude Oil (UCO)

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Enter a half position on Proshares Ultra Crude Oil ETF (UCO) Under $43. ITZ suggested on Twitter yesterday, entering ITZ PIX @ $42.50. CHART

Itz hightlighted Monday that WTI crude oil would test $95, maybe even testing $90. ITZ sees the price of WTI heading higher at year end, targeting $120.

At the June report, the IEA forecast that world crude consumption will increase +1.48% y/y, or +1.3M bpd, to 89.3M bpd in 2011. This is around +0.1M bpd higher that the May projection. On the supply side, estimate of non-OPEC production is reduced to 53.3M bpd from May's projection of 53.7M bpd due to disruptions in the North Sea, America and Yemen. Therefore, demand for OPEC's crude is expected to rise to an averaged 30.1M bpd in the year, up from 29.7M bpd projected in May.

The IEA reiterated that 'there is a clear need for the organization [OPEC] to boost supply'. There are 'damaging implications' to global economy if Saudi Arabia and some other producers fail to do so. Concerning disruption in Libya, the IEA believed production can only recover gradually after the ongoing civil war but will not be able to return to pre-war level of around 1.6M bpd until 2014.

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