Saturday, June 29, 2013

WTI Crude Oil- Short Position

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West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil had a volatile 10 days, after touching $99 a barrel- it dropped to $92.50 post FOMC, nearly testing it's 200 day moving average. Then rallying to a $98 intraday high this Friday, where ITZ entered a half-position in Proshares UltraShort Crude Oil ETF (SCO) @ $35.80.; it closed Friday @ $36.45 -  ITZ raised the stop to $36.20.

The move in crude has in part been driven by gold investors shifting money out of the precious metal, as it dropped, breaking the $1,200 an ounce level. Although the Weekly EIA showed no change in inventory levels for the week, the fact that crude held and that gold/silver plummeted was a bullish factor.

ITZ has noted over the past few weeks that gold, as per Commitment of Traders (COT) report was in a 'Bottoming Phase'- with commercial hedgers decreasing their short positions & large traders their long positions. So most people that are going to sell have sold... basically washed out. ITZ suggested entering silver via Silver Wheaton (SLW) on June 25th Link 

The near term view is that those have shifted money towards crude, will begin re-entering gold and silver. ITZ is looking at the Gold:WTI Crude Ratio, as well as the Crude Oil COT and Oil Futures Contango (OILZ) Link


itzstockchartz said...

$CL-F trading higher off of the Egyptian uprising, crude testing $97.60. $SCO trading premarket @ $35.35,below ITZ suggested $36.20 and entry level $35.80.
ITZ suggests not selling here. We may add to our 1/2 position on any further pullback.

itzstockchartz said...

Adding 1/4 position with crude testing $100 $SCO $34

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itzstockchartz said...

$SCO added final position @ $33

itzstockchartz said...

All in on Proshares UltraShort Crude Oil- average cost basis $34.65, $SCO closed July 3rd @ $33.01, so down $1.64 / -4.73% with $cl_f @ $101.19.

Anonymous said...

I'd love to see a new post and any thoughts on the very narrow spread between WTI and Brent now.