Friday, July 10, 2009

Will China Lead the Global Recovery?



An IMF forecast suggests by next year the economies of China & India could be on fire. They says China's economy should grow by 8.5% in 2010 while India will likely see growth of 6.5%. Link to IMF Report

The number of U.S. businesses featured in the annual Fortune 500 list of top global companies fell to lowest level ever, Fortune Magazine said, while more Chinese entries appeared than ever before.Fortune 500 link

The number of U.S. companies in the top 500 fell to 140, the lowest since Fortune began the list 1995. Overall, China had an unprecedented total of 37 companies featured on the list, with nine new entries and the others climbing in the rankings.

Chinese auto sales climbed 48 percent in June, signaling that the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is reviving the world’s third-largest economy. The country is “a positive force” that will help revive global growth, billionaire George Soros said yesterday. Alcoa Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld forecast that demand in China will grow after the company posted a smaller-than-estimated quarterly loss. For the first-half of 2009 China auto sales topped 6.1 million while in the US they were only 4.8 million. Link

So, as I've been blogging for the last few days, the short term maybe bearish however on the longer term outlook globally, suggests owning commodities will be profitable.

One has to ask have commodities been oversold or are emerging markets overbought? I'd be careful with the EEM, but I like the FXI, especially based on the robust IMF outlook.

*click on charts to enlarge image
















No comments: